Captain Turfbeard's football analysis

The Captain's Log

Hall of Fame

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Scoring System

Your final score for a match is: (Base Points x Difficulty Multiplier) + Bonuses

Prediction	Base Points	Easy (1x)	Medium (1.5x)	Hard (2x)	Very Hard (2.5x)
Correct Outcome	1 pt	1 pt	1.5 pts	2 pts	2.5 pts
Correct Scoreline	3 pts	3 pts	4.5 pts	6 pts	7.5 pts

🎯 Near Miss Bonus: +0.5 points!
Awarded if you get the outcome right but miss the exact scoreline by predicting the correct goal difference OR one team's score correctly.

💰 Dynamic Upset Bonus: Up to +4 points!
Correctly predict an upset to earn a bonus proportional to the winner's odds. The bigger the upset, the bigger the reward!

Pirate Ranks

Your rank is determined by your average score per prediction. Climb the ranks to become a legend!

🐙 Kraken Master: 5.5+ Average Score
👑 Pirate Lord: 4.5 - 5.49 Average Score
⭐ Legendary Captain: 3.75 - 4.49 Average Score
💀 Dread Pirate: 3.0 - 3.74 Average Score
🧭 Seasoned Navigator: 2.5 - 2.99 Average Score
💣 Master Gunner: 2.0 - 2.49 Average Score
⚓ First Mate: 1.5 - 1.99 Average Score
⚔️ Swashbuckler: 1.0 - 1.49 Average Score
mop Deckhand: 0.5 - 0.99 Average Score
🧑‍🍳 Cabin Boy: < 0.5 Average Score

Choose Your Captain's Name

Choose a unique name to be shown on leaderboards. This can't be changed later!

The Kraken's Helm

Select a Core Tactic

Choose a core strategy to instantly apply a set of parameters, or adjust them manually below.

Forecast Parameters

Adjust how the Kraken makes a prediction for a single match.

Kraken's 9 Brains (Neural Network) - (40%)

Trusts deep, complex patterns from historical data.

Kraken's 2 Hearts (Logistic Regression) - (25%)

Trusts simpler, more direct statistical relationships.

Kraken's Guts (Poisson Model) - (35%)

Trusts the raw potential for scoring goals.

Prediction Confidence (Balanced)

"Cautious" produces closer probabilities. "Confident" produces more decisive (but riskier) predictions.

Training Parameters

Change the Kraken's diet. To apply these, save your settings, then awaken the Kraken on the main page.

Training Data Range (6 Seasons)

How many past seasons should the Kraken learn from? (Max 6)

Recency Weighting (Medium)

How much importance should be given to the most recent matches?

Engineered Features (Select the Kraken's Senses)

Form Stats (Points, Goals)

Head-to-Head History

Elo Ratings

Offensive Efficiency

Defensive Solidity

Fixture Congestion

Terms & Conditions

Last Updated: October 7, 2025

Welcome to Captain Turfbeard's! These terms and conditions outline the rules and regulations for the use of turfbeard.com's web application.

By accessing this web app, we assume you accept these terms and conditions. Do not continue to use Captain Turfbeard's if you do not agree to all of the terms and conditions stated on this page.

1. Description of Service

Captain Turfbeard's is a web application that provides football match analysis and predictions for entertainment purposes only. The service uses a combination of client-side statistical models, generative AI for contextual analysis, and a final AI synthesis to generate insights.

2. For Entertainment Purposes Only - No Warranty

All data, analysis, and predictions provided by this service are intended for entertainment and informational purposes. The predictions are not betting or financial advice. We make no warranties regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information provided. You agree that any reliance on the material in this app is at your own risk.

3. User Accounts

To access the full features of the service, you must create an account. You are responsible for maintaining the confidentiality of your account and password. You will be required to choose a unique username which will be displayed publicly on the leaderboard.

4. In-App "Credits"

The service uses a virtual currency called "Credits" to unlock detailed match analyses. These Credits have no monetary value, cannot be exchanged for cash, are non-refundable, and are for use exclusively within the application.

5. Intellectual Property

The service and its original content, features, and functionality are and will remain the exclusive property of turfbeards.com. This includes the name, theme, images, and all underlying code.

6. Limitation of Liability

In no event shall turfbeard.com be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of or in connection with the Service.

7. Governing Law

These Terms shall be governed and construed in accordance with the laws of England and Wales.

8. Contact Us

If you have any questions about these Terms, please contact us at strangechildrenmusic@gmail.com.

Privacy Policy

Last Updated: October 7, 2025

turfbeard.com operates the Captain Turfbeard's web application. This page informs you of our policies regarding the collection, use, and disclosure of personal data when you use our Service.

1. Information Collection and Use

We collect several different types of information to provide and improve our Service.

Personal Data: While using our Service, we collect your email address for account creation and a username chosen by you for public display on leaderboards.
Usage Data & Predictions: We store the predictions you unlock, the settings you use in the "Kraken's Helm," your score guesses, and the AI-generated reports associated with your account.
Aggregated Analytical Data: Your prediction data is used in an anonymous, aggregated form to analyze patterns and improve the "Recent Lessons" feature for all users.
Cookies & Local Storage: We use technologies like browser cookies (via Google Firebase) to manage your session and IndexedDB to store historical match data on your device for model training.

2. Use of Data

We use the collected data to provide the Service, manage your account, display your username on the leaderboard, and analyze usage patterns to improve our AI models.

3. Data Storage and Third Parties

Your data is stored and processed using Google Firebase. As such, your data is subject to Google's privacy policy. We do not share your Personal Data with any other third parties, except as required by law.

4. User Rights

You have the right to access, update, or delete your data. If you wish to permanently delete your account, please contact us at strangechildrenmusic@gmail.com.

5. Security of Data

We use commercially acceptable means provided by Google Firebase to protect your Personal Data, but we cannot guarantee its absolute security.

6. Contact Us

If you have any questions about this Privacy Policy, please contact us at strangechildrenmusic@gmail.com.

The Captain's Guide

Listen here scallywags!

So you want to navigate these treacherous waters and divine the future of the beautiful game? Follow my orders, and you'll be swimming in braggin' rights in no time. Here be the lay of the land:

Step 1: Plunder The Depths

First, you must choose a sea to chart (a football league). Hit 'Plunder The Depths' to send yer crew to fetch ancient scrolls (years of historical match data) and store 'em in yer ship's hold (your browser). This booty is what we'll use to feed the Kraken!

Step 2: Awaken the Kraken

Once the hold is full, it's time to 'Awaken the Kraken'! The great beastie will devour the scrolls, learning the secrets of every past battle. Once its nine brains are full, it'll be ready for divinin'.

Step 3: Spot Upcoming Skirmishes

With a trained Kraken at yer command, use the spyglass to 'Spot Upcoming Skirmishes'. Be aware, the spyglass can only see through the mists of time from **the morrow onwards** – it cannot be used to find skirmishes happenin' today.

Step 4: Ponder The Horizon

This be the heart of it all. For the cost of one credit, you can unlock a skirmish for a full analysis. Once unlocked, you must consult yer crew:

Forecast: Unleash the Kraken to get its cold, hard statistical verdict.
Consult Quartermaster: Send yer Quartermaster to the nearest port for the latest tavern gossip (team news and injuries).
Get Captain's Orders: With all the intel gathered, I'll give ye me final, sagely advice and a predicted score.
Your Guess: Finally, make yer own mark on the map! Lock in yer own prediction to see how you stack up against me and the Kraken.

The Hall of Fame & The Captain's Log

After a skirmish is over, the true result will be fetched. Points are awarded in the 'Captain's Log' based on accuracy, with bonuses for callin' a tough fight or an upset! Climb the 'Hall of Fame' (the Leaderboard) and become a legend of the high seas!

The Kraken's Helm

Feeling bold? Visit the 'Kraken's Helm' to take the wheel yourself. Here you can teach the Kraken new tricks by changing its training diet or telling it which of its many senses to trust. Experiment with different 'Archetypes' to find a strategy that works for ye!

Now get to it, the tides wait for no pirate!

Admin Panel

System Actions

Find Pending Predictions

Find all predictions from all users that are missing a result. Click a match to auto-fill the form below.

Force Result Update

Use this tool to manually apply a result to any match, regardless of its date. This is useful for re-calculating scores after a logic change.

Manual Result Entry (Auto-Detected)

Matches that could not be automatically resolved will appear here.

Loading pending results...

Captain Turfbeard's Kraken-powered football analysis

Step 1: Load the coffers

Step 2: Awaken the Kraken

Step 3: Scan the Horizon

Available Skirmishes

Step 4: Ponder The Horizon

The Captain's Log

The Captain's Recent Lessons from the Log

Kraken Archetype Guide

Your Personal Tactics Report